As I was loading my travel video on YT last night, I got to listen in to a discussion on the recent news on 4 additional EDCA sites. It was an interesting exchange where opinions and ideas were shared by those for and against it. I learned a lot from the discussion after having been out of touch of political issues for quite a while. It was refreshing to hear insights from popular socmed personalities side by side with those who don’t share the same limelight.
I guess the basic premise of the exchange was the bigger question on whether the Philippines will get more involved between the China-US conflict when it escalates into an armed aggression. We all know how China’s aggressive stance on Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea has been hounding the region and the world. There’s the fear that, with the added EDCA sites, we become unlikely target of China when an armed conflict happens.
From a personal standpoint, I think that the Philippines have long been dragged into the issue and, should the case be that an armed conflict arises, the Philippines will be slugging it in, as well. Two things stand out for me to come up to this conclusion – geography and the Mutual Defense Treaty. Let me explain.
I am not an expert on geo-politics but we can all remember that we were taught in school how strategic the Philippines is geographically. Our country serves as a “gate” to Southeast Asia and to one important trade route – the South China Sea or West Philippine Sea. Our location is ideal for both an offensive and defensive position during an armed conflict. The one to whom we affiliate with has the power over the region. An association with China would mean that they can effectively block off any aggression to the region and WPS from the US. On the other hand, an affiliation with the US can would mean that the Philippines can become a launching pad for their offensive against China. I believe that it was the same knowledge that the Japanese had in World War 2 and that was the reason why we got attacked next after the attack at Pearl Harbor. Destroy the facilities and capture the gate. The one who controls the gate yields power.
In short, our geographical position in the world map puts us in a point of interest for the 2 super powers. I think that the US was long aware of that advantage and that led to the ratification of the Mutual Defense Treaty after World War 2. The Philippines is key to the security of the region. Remember that the one who holds the keys to the gate yields the power.
The Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 is, I think, grounded on this geographical advantage of the Philippines. It gave us the security blanket of an ally who will help us defend the nation as we pick up the pieces after being ravaged in World War 2. We needed the facilities, the training, and the equipment to strengthen our Armed Forces and this came along with the treaty and the subsequent VFA and EDCA agreements. This meant that from 1951, we have already taken a side and that is the US. So in as much as we would like to believe that we stand neutral on the China-US conflict, that neutrality only stand in words and in a time of peace. However should an armed conflict against the US arise, the treaty has already outlined that we are to stand with the US. Filipinos are bounded to that provision. We can maintain our neutral stance until an armed attack is carried out against the United States or Philippines.
If we really want a neutral position at all times then the solution is to abrogate from the Mutual Defense Treaty. This would free the Philippines from any obligation when an attack is carried out against the US. Equally, it stands the same for the US. The bigger question now is our capability to defend ourselves should China or any entity become more aggressive to the Philippines. Can we stand alone to defend our own? I guess, we all know the answer to that. The MDF is a safety net for us Filipinos when we speak of regional security.
So… are we going to war? Not yet.
The fact remains that the Philippines will be dragged in when armed conflict between China and US happens. Our location and affiliation put us right at the center. Regardless whether we have 5 or 10 or 50 EDCA sites, our involvement in an armed conflict between the US and China is a huge possibility. The decision to expedite and add additional EDCA sites is a decision that needs to be done as a precaution and a preparation. It is better that we are prepared for the inevitable because the tension is brewing. We need to be prepared because, like what was said during the discussion, it is no longer a question of “if” but a question of “when”.
adobongpinoy 